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China's automobile market: the last paradise in the world

although the growth rate of the automobile market has slowed down, and although there has been a local excess in vehicle production capacity, it is undeniable that as a single national market with more than 20million new vehicles each year, the overall capacity and characteristics of China's automobile market can be called the last piece of paradise for the global automobile industry. Although the growth rate of the automobile market has slowed down, and although there has been a local excess in vehicle production capacity, it is undeniable that, as a single national market with more than 20million new vehicles each year, the overall capacity and characteristics of China's automobile market can be called the last piece of paradise for the global automobile industry. Of course, in the future, India may be on a par with the increasing presence of UTM in plastic molding and extrusion laboratories in China, but the overall rise of the Indian market may be at least 5 or 10 years later

the main battlefield of well-known global brands

in fact, in terms of the annual sales of 23.5 million vehicles in 2014, China is now the global ceiling level market. Compared with the sales volume of more than 85million vehicles in the global automobile market in 2014, the Chinese market accounted for as much as 27.6%, significantly higher than the second ranked United States (19.9%), and much higher than the third ranked Japan (6.5%). For example, the volume of the Chinese market is basically equivalent to the sum of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Italy, Australia and South Korea, which rank among the top 15 in the global auto sales rankings, and the three BRICs countries, India, Brazil and Russia

from the market sales statistics of the top 15 automobile brands in the world, it can also be found that except Renault and Fiat, which have just entered the Chinese market and are not developing smoothly in the Chinese market, and Wuling, which is one of the top 15 Chinese brands, the ratio of the production and sales of the 12 world brands in China to their total production and sales in the global market, except Mercedes Benz, has exceeded 10%. Among them, more than 20% are Volkswagen, Audi, Hyundai, Kia, Peugeot and other six brands, Honda, Nissan, Chevrolet, BMW and other four brands are more than 15%, and more than 10% are Ford and Toyota. Among them, the Chinese market accounts for 41.4% of the global market share of Volkswagen, which ranks second in the global sales volume; The value of luxury car brand Audi is also as high as 29.7%

in fact, the market share of the above statistics is only the sales of vehicles produced by international brands in China. If their respective imported models are included, the global market share, including Mercedes Benz brand, has already exceeded 10%. Coupled with a large number of local independent brands in China, it is conceivable that this huge market will be unmatched at least for a long time in the future

economic strength and infrastructure have been in place

what corresponds to such a huge market is a large-scale population and economic capacity foundation, as well as a huge road network and transportation facilities. Of course, it also includes a certain car preference. With a population of more than 1.3 billion, it is needless to say that only India in the world can compete with this huge population base. On the other hand, from the perspective of the middle class population, the mainstay of a country's economy, according to the Chinese version of Forbes and the 2014 white paper on the wealth of China's mass wealthy released by Yixin wealth, at the end of 2013, the number of middle-class people in China with personal investable assets of 600000-6million yuan reached 11.97 million. If the average annual income of the middle class generally recognized in the United States is between 25000 and 100000 dollars, it is roughly equivalent to an annual income of 150000 to 600000 yuan. There are also many Chinese people who meet this standard. If the starting point of the middle-income class proposed by the United Nations is only US $8000 per capita annual income (equivalent to about 50000 yuan), then China undoubtedly has a middle-class team that no other country can match, which is the strongest strength foundation for the long-term development of China's automobile market in the future

in terms of road network, only take the expressway with the highest level as an example. In 2013, the national expressway traffic mileage reached 104400 km, while in 2012, the expressway mileage in China was the same as that in the United States. It can be seen that among the two largest economies in the world, the road and transportation infrastructure of the two countries are almost the same in terms of the total volume, while the current car ownership in China is only 150million and that in the United States is 250million. If other factors such as energy supply and traffic restrictions are not taken into account, there is still much room for China's automobile growth potential

in addition, in terms of road density, in several major cities along the eastern coast of China, such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities, even according to the statistics in 2011, the expressway density is generally more than 5 km/100 square kilometers. In several most economically developed regions in China, such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the expressway density is generally more than 7 km/100 square kilometers, Some even reach as high as 12 km/100 square kilometers, completely reaching the level of the world's most developed economic circles of major cities such as New York, Paris and Tokyo

from the perspective of vehicle preference, due to China's vast territory, changeable terrain and Chinese driving and travel habits, the average vehicle intensity of Chinese people is more than 10000 km/year, which is a medium level in the world. Although the trend of SUV in China in recent years may not be a good thing for energy conservation, from the perspective of the development potential of automobile replacement, the overall grade of private cars in China is significantly improving, which provides a foundation for the stable development of the automobile market in the future

according to another statistics of automobile renewal, the speed of domestic automobile renewal in recent years is not fast. For example, the current year's car renewal can be roughly calculated based on the car ownership over the years and the production and sales volume of that year. During the four years from 2010 to 2013, the calculated car renewal was only 2.85 million, 2.97 million, 3.54 million and 4.61 million respectively. Compared with the current year's car ownership, the renewal rates were only about 3.7%, 3.2%, 3.2% and 3.6% respectively; Even compared with the automobile production and sales of that year, it only accounts for about 15.8%, 16.0%, 18.3% and 21.0% respectively. Compared with mature markets that are basically saturated in developed countries, the replacement rate of the overall market is still very low, which also shows that there is still considerable potential space for future market development

the scale advantage of the industrial chain is obvious

from the perspective of the overall automobile industrial chain, the world's top automobile manufacturers, such as Toyota, Volkswagen, general motors, Ford, Hyundai, PSA, Nissan, Honda, Mercedes Benz and BMW, have all entered China, and most of them have more than three or more automobile production plants in China, Many have the foundation to cultivate the Chinese market into the largest or at least the top three markets in the world. For example, the total number of Volkswagen, Audi and Skoda brands produced by Volkswagen Group in China has reached nearly 3.5 million, the production and sales of Buick and Chevrolet alone in GM Group has reached 1.68 million, the total number of Hyundai and Kia brands of Hyundai Group is 1.76 million, and other brands such as Toyota, Nissan, Ford, Honda and PSA are basically more than 700000, plus Changan, Dongfeng, Geely, Chery, great wall, BYD Many Chinese brand manufacturers, such as JAC and brilliance, have formed an automobile industry chain driven by huge automobile production groups in China

at the automobile production and supply side, the extensive supply chain composed of multinational parts suppliers and domestic suppliers is also supporting this huge industry with trillions of output value. For example, Bosch, Denso, Magna, Continental, Johnson Controls, Aisin, Faurecia, Delphi, TRW, ZF, Schaeffler and Valeo among the world's top 50 parts suppliers have all set up factories in China, and Michelin, Goodyear, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Ma Pai, Hantai and GUPT among tire suppliers have long been rooted in China. Among them, Bosch, the world's largest parts supplier, has 63 companies in China, with more than 32000 employees, and the sales volume in the Chinese market has reached more than 40billion yuan; Since the establishment of the first joint venture production enterprise in China in 1994, Denso has established 29 affiliated enterprises in China, including production companies, sales companies and technology centers; Continental group, which entered the Chinese market in 1984, now has 25 production plants and more than 1400 engineers in China; Faurecia has 36 factories, 4 R & D centers and 10000 employees in China, of which 700 are R & D and technical personnel; Delphi currently has 23 production bases and 3 world-class R & D centers in China. The products developed by the Chinese R & D team have obtained more than 300 patents, and one third of its global new products and technologies come from China; Valeo has 29 production bases and 15000 employees in China, and the production, sales and orders in the Chinese market account for a quarter of its global market

while various vehicle and parts manufacturers have invested in the Chinese market to build factories or establish R & D centers, the automobile test sites established by Chinese and foreign manufacturers in China have also sprung up. For example, in the past two years, general motors, Chang'an Automobile, China Automotive Technology Research Center and continental group have respectively established large-scale automobile test sites, plus many automobile parts suppliers such as Bosch In the future, China will certainly become a paradise for all kinds of vehicle test sites in the world

equipment, testing and related materials enterprises are also not disappointed

consistent with the products in the automobile supply chain. Almost all kinds of equipment and testing for manufacturing automobiles and parts, including R & D and design companies, have entered the Chinese market. For example, AVL Liszt, FEV, Ricardo, Southwest Research Institute, GIF, Moog, etc., who are very famous in the field of automobile, engine, transmission R & D and testing, have helped Chinese automobile manufacturers design numerous products over the years, and they also undertake many testing equipment and testing businesses in domestic OEMs. However, at the forefront of automobile design and R & D, it seems that there is still a lack of local Chinese enterprises to take the lead

in terms of automobile equipment for manufacturing automobiles and related parts, among the several types of machine tool equipment lacking in China's automobile industry, although the level of domestic machine tool equipment, including many intelligent automobile equipment, is also gradually improving, when relevant manufacturers choose such precision metal cutting machine tools, vehicle automatic spraying lines, body welding lines, automatic assembly lines, including precision forging and casting equipment, At the same time, it also includes the production lines of large assemblies such as engines and transmissions, as well as the main testing equipment, CNC tool system, laser cutting equipment, etc. whether it is a joint venture brand host enterprise or a Chinese brand host enterprise, most of them use the equipment of international well-known manufacturers. Some manufacturers in Germany, the United States, Japan and South Korea have taken measures to reduce production capacity and stabilize prices, and equipment manufacturers have even become frequent customers of our host enterprises. Although China's automobile market has gradually entered the stage of small or micro growth, the planning blueprint envisioned by the huge market scale and various potential expectations can not help the pace of major relevant equipment manufacturers in China


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